Projects gone bad: guesses dressed as science

Been reading the current edition of E. F. Schumacher’s 1973 classic “Small Is Beautiful”.

In chapter 3, “Resources for Industry”, I’ve just found the provoking paragraph.

It is fashionable today to assume that any figures about the future are better than none. To produce figures about the unknown, the current method is to make a guess about something or other – called an “assumption” – and to derive an estimate from it by subtle calculation. The estimate is the presented as the result of scientific reasoning, something far superior to mere guesswork. This is a pernicious practice which can only lead to the most colossal planning errors, because it offers a bogus answer where, in fact, an entrepreneurial judgment is required.

This paragraph really hits the nail of the head, with regard to one reason why big IT projects fail. So much is unknown, then inferred and finally dressed up as the plan that can be done for a tight budget and time frame.

No one says the Emperor has no cloth. The plan says he is fully dressed.

This is an environmental book. A good book for a generalist read.

Well worth the read.


Gnoll110

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